2 edition of Inflation and output forecasting for South Africa found in the catalog.
Inflation and output forecasting for South Africa
by University of Oxford in Oxford
|Statement||Janine Aron and John Muellbauer.|
|Series||Centre the Study of African Economies Working Paper -- WPS 2000-23|
|Contributions||Muellbauer, John., Centre for the Study of African Economies.|
|The Physical Object|
|Number of Pages||31|
Several emerging markets and developing economies have adopted inflation targeting since the s, including South Africa (SA) in 1 Forecasting in emerging markets is particularly challenging compared to the US and the Eurozone, for example, given the volatility in food prices 2 and the exchange rate, as well as structural by: predictive content for output growth at some times in some countries. Whether this predictive content can be exploited reliably is less clear, for this requires knowing a-priori what asset price works when in which countries. The evidence that asset prices are useful for forecasting output .
Forecasting models for output are presented to throw light on monetary transmission. Recent research finds multistep forecasting superior to recursive forecasting from a VAR model when structural breaks are present; there are important political and policy regime breaks in South Africa. The equilibrium correction models have a four-quarter ahead forecast horizon, appropriate for measuring Cited by: In the third quarter, analysts, business people and trade unionists on average expect inflation to pick up from % (% previously) in to % (%) in and % (%) in Inflation Expectations PDF, Q2. Last updated: Jul 18 AM. In the second quarter, average inflation expectations remained unchanged at % in.
Get this from a library! Potential output and total factor productivity growth in post-apartheid South Africa. [Vivek Arora; Ashok Bhundia; International Monetary Fund. African Department.] -- This paper provides estimates of potential output growth in post-apartheid South Africa using both time trend techniques and a production function approach which indicates a potential growth rate of. out of 5 stars Very good book on the nature of inflation, lacks confirmatory data and practical advice. Reviewed in the United States on February 8, This book aims to give the reader a deeper appreciation of what inflation is and dispel the most prevalent myths about it.4/5(5).
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The annual inflation rate in South Africa fell to percent in March of from percent in February and below market expectations of percent. It was the lowest inflation rate since last December, as prices slowed mostly for transport ( percent vs percent in February), namely fuels ( percent vs percent), on the back of falling oil prices amid the Covid pandemic.
trends to predict both inflation and output growth in South Africa, one year ahead. The model forecasting the change in the log of the consumer expendit ure deflator one year ahead ha s an. The Role of Asset Prices in Forecasting Inflation and Output.
in South Africa # Rangan Gupta * and Faaiqa Hartley ** Abstract: This paper assesses the predictive ability of asset prices relative to other variables in forecasting inflation and real GDP growth in South Africa. A total of 42 asset and non-asset predictor variables are considered.
This page has economic forecasts for South Africa including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the South Africa economy.
Abstract: South Africa’s recent adoption of inflation targeting increases the need for good forecasting models of inflation and models for understanding the monetary transmission mechanism.
This paper presents multi-step models for inflation and output, four-quarters ahead. We compare the recursive out-of-sample forecasts for South African GDP and inflation from six types of models: a general 33 country (large) GVAR, a customized small GVAR for South Africa, a VECM.
Stock and Watson: Forecasting Output and Inflation (the test of 31(L) = 0) should be computed using HAC standard errors.2 The stability of the coefficients in the forecasting relation (3) can be assessed by a variety of methods, including testing for breaks in coefficients and estimation of mod- Cited by: Understanding what helps forecast inflation is important for any modern economy, but analysis remains limited in the emerging market economy context.
This column presents recent findings on inflation forecasting in such economies, showing that a variant of the simple random walk model specification seems difficult to beat.
The strong forecasting performance of this model can. Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices James H. Stock, Mark W. Watson. NBER Working Paper No. Issued in March NBER Program(s):Economic Fluctuations and Growth, Monetary Economics This paper examines old and new evidence on the predictive performance of asset prices for inflation and real output growth.
Downloadable. The conduct of inflation targeting is heavily dependent on accurate inflation forecasts. Non-linear models have increasingly featured, along with linear counterparts, in the forecasting literature. In this study, we focus on forecasting South African infl ation by means of non-linear models and using a long historical dataset of seasonally-adjusted monthly inflation rates.
Annari De Waal & Reneé Van Eyden & Rangan Gupta, "Do we need a global VAR model to forecast inflation and output in South Africa?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(25), pagesMay. “Monetary Policy and Inflation Modeling in a more Open Economy in South Africa.” evolving openness represents a structural break from the inflation forecasting perspective.
Omitting this factor can confuse modellers studying the determinants of inflation and output. For. forecasting south african food inflation by gÜnther diederich griessel submitted in accordance with the requirements for the degree magister scientiae agriculturae in the supervisor: dr a.a.
ogundeji co-supervisor: prof b.j. willemse january faculty of natural and agricultural sciences department of agricultural economics university of the free state bloemfontein.
The SARB sees inflation averaging % in and % in FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see inflation averaging % inwhich is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and % in South Africa - Inflation Data. Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) 5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic.
Woglom (), in his discussion of how the introduction of inflation targeting in affected monetary policy in South Africa, points out that the response of the SARB to changes in the real value of its currency are far from clear, and are therefore a source of confusion.
1 It is also worth noting that South African financial institutions Cited by: Now that South Africa's inflation rate has breached the 3% to 6% target of SARB, they need to act (and they have been acting over the last couple of months by increasing interest rates).
Problem with increasing interest rates to control inflation, when inflation is caused by external factors and shocks (Cost Push inflation), and not by increased demand (Demand Pull inflation).
is that overall. economic activity and inflation. This interest in asset prices as leading indicators arose, at least in part, from the instability in the s and early s of forecasts of output and inflation based on monetary aggregates and of forecasts of inflation based on the (non-expectational) Phillips curve.
Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. XLI (September ) groups: in-sample and out-of-sample methods. In-Sample Measures of Predictive Content Suppose we want to know whether a can-didate variable, X, is useful for forecasting a variable of interest, example, Xtcould be the value of the term spread in quarter t and Yt11could be the growth rate of real.
effectiveness of monetary policy for inflation and for output (Leiderman and Svensson, ). We have recently confirmed the role of the output gap in South Africa’s inflation process, among other factors, in a sophisticated inflation forecasting model (Aron and Muellbauer, a).
• Benchmarking and revisions to South Africa’s National Accounts and Balance of Payments Statistics • The Economic Impacts of Alternative Electricity Options • The impact of higher mark-ups on the South African Economy • Calculation of the exchange rate pass.
Treasury of South Africa. The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the funder, ERSA or the author’s affiliated institution(s).
ERSA shall not be liable to any person for inaccurate information or opinions contained herein. Inflation, growth and employment in South Africa: Trends and trade-offsFile Size: 1MB.Some issues in modelling and forecasting inflation in South Africa price inflation equation.
We then demonstrate similar findings in a forecasting context for the redefined producer price index now produced by Stats SA. Evolving trade liberalisation represents a structural break, the omission of which can bias the determinants of inflation.South Africa’s inflation has been quite stable for the past years, levelling off between and percent, and is in fact expected to stabilize at around 5 percent in the future.